New John Deere Autonomous Vehicles CES announcement : Reality or Marketing ? Detailed Analysis

Jan 8

The CES 2025 in Las Vegas saw John Deere unveil three groundbreaking autonomous agricultural tools aimed at revolutionizing the farming industry. While the technology appears promising, the real question remains: are these innovations a leap forward for modern agriculture, or simply another marketing push? Let’s examine the three key products showcased and analyze their potential impact.

Automatization is coming, Not yet !?

We are undeniably entering the era of agricultural automation; it is no longer a myth or mere marketing, as I previously mentioned in my article on the topic : FROM REVOLUTION TO REALITY: THE EVOLUTION OF AGRICULTURAL ROBOTICS. Having watched and analyzed John Deere's entire press conference, I bring insights from my extensive experience working on numerous automation projects. This allows me to take a critical view of their marketing announcements. John Deere, once reserved in their media approach to autonomy, now seems committed to bringing autonomy to multiple products across different markets. However, despite the growing sophistication of autonomous tractors, they remain limited in their scope of tasks. Furthermore, there is still no official business plan, pricing, or release date, leaving these products far from being fully realized. This raises the question: is John Deere still exploring the true added value of autonomy and how it could be commercially viable ? I think it's turning John Deere's business models upside down !

**John Deere Autonomous 9RX tractor, Credit : John Deere**

1- Autonomous 9RX Tractor for Large-Scale farms

Autonomous Kit, what V2 bring

John Deere has unveiled its second autonomy kit, now featuring 16 individual cameras arranged in pods to enable a 360-degree view of the field. This new version appears to offer a vision system capable of working both day and night, with greater range, improved stability, and enhanced intelligence to ensure no obstacles or humans are within the working zone. However, this is the only evolution they have communicated, only few about smart tools, on-board decisions making or sef-controled applications.

How do you ensure 100% autonomous working?

The tasks shown on the video remain too basic; we are still talking about soil preparation (a task that most tractor driver spend on their phone ;). How can John Deere guarantee the quality of work performed continuously throughout the day and night? One can imagine a semblance of intelligence in the tool with the presence of GPS and cameras. Can the cameras detect a broken roller? a broken disc or tooth? And we are just talking about a soil preparation tool ! John Deere mentions that their tractor can do every task, but let’s take planting/seeding as an example: How can they ensure that the seed will be placed in the right spot, at the correct depth, and with the proper spacing? I don’t believe these challenges have been resolved yet. Until they are, fully autonomous systems won’t be ready—farmers won’t entrust a machine to handle seeding.

Bring more intelligence to the tools !

With this second version of the kit, John Deere demonstrates that they have primarily focused on improving the intelligence of their tractors, with a better vision and decision-making capabilities. However, they still seem far from integrating the necessary technology into the tools to make them intelligent enough to autonomously and effectively control the quality of work. To put it simply, we now have a John Deere tractor with human-like eyes, discernment capacity is still lacking.

**Autonomous 5ML Orchard Tractor in a very very well maintained orchard**

Autonomous 5ML Orchard Tractor for Air Blast Spraying

From GUSS to Orchard Tractor for Air Blast Spraying

This new announcement is particularly surprising given that John Deere previously invest in GUSS, a fleet-operable robot designed to automate spraying in large fields. The introduction of this product suggests that customer demand is strong. John Deere had the choice between heavily promoting its GUSS robot or developing an autonomous version of its tractors. It seems that the market and farmers have been convinced by the GUSS product and found it appealing. However, the fact that its ROI is limited to spraying operations in large fields where it can operate as a fleet likely explains why John Deere decided to diversify their offering. This second innovation caters specifically to orchards, where dense vegetation and narrow lanes pose unique challenges. Equipped with lidar sensors, the tractor can navigate through tree rows to perform tasks like spraying. This tool offers a practical solution to labor shortages in industries like nut farming, where precise and repetitive tasks are crucial.

Why focus on spraying Californian orchards?

For most people, it’s unclear why John Deere would target such a niche market. However, California is a hub where many technologies begin their journey. Local farmers produce high-value crops under increasingly challenging conditions: price wars, water shortages, an aging workforce, and rising labor costs that are harder to address. Historically, these farmers have shown a strong appetite for innovation, possibly due to their proximity to Silicon Valley. The GUSS project was born there, and its results have set high expectations. Farmers now await one thing—a fully autonomous tractor from John Deere tailored to their needs.

Additionally, in recent years, major manufacturers like New Holland (with its Monarch), and Kubota have challenged John Deere in the specialized tractor market. Being the first to provide these farmers with an autonomous tractor that meets their needs could give John Deere the edge to push these competitors definitively into the background.

Basically, it's not much of a novelty !

By investing in GUSS, John Deere has leveraged the startup’s existing technology and implemented it onto their tractors, so there’s no major breakthrough here. The goal seems to be to sell an autonomous tractor to all perennial crop farmers looking to automate their operations—and even then, we’re still only talking about spraying. There’s no indication yet of a quality control system for spraying or safety measures for detecting humans in the field. While lidar is a good technology for obstacle detection and calculating distances from trees, as I learned during my interview with a GUSS user, it’s still too limited in distinguishing real obstacles from false ones. Broken branches or overly tall vegetation often cause the system to stop unnecessarily. This announcement feels like John Deere saying, “Dear users, I’ve heard you, and I’m working on an autonomous tractor, not just robots.” And it is good because I think that most of the farmers do not have a 400 ha fields where they can put their fleet of 6 robots in it, same as the fact that a farmer will always prefer to have a versatile tool, than a single-task robot under the shed.

**130 hp electrical tractor presented by John Deere**

John Deere 130 hp E-power Prototype

The (Real?) surprise !

This is perhaps the least exciting innovation from an expert’s perspective. No release date, no pricing, just a claim of 130 horsepower. This product feels the most like a marketing move but still. Given its power, it appears to be aimed at farmers specializing in vineyards, orchards, and vegetables—likely for the Californian market. The strategy might be to compete with CNH and its Monarch tractor, offering a more powerful and capable alternative.

Tool electrifications ? Why not !

We’ve seen the tractor demonstrate its ability to mow grass electrically, which raises questions about whether John Deere is working on electrifying its tools, which in theory, this could enhance their autonomy even further. On the other hand, it lacks information about features like swappable batteries, a specific charging concept, or fast recharge capabilities. Considering the challenges of California’s off-grid orchards, one wonders how this 130-hp tractor will be charged in remote locations, and I assume that solar panel won’t make the job. Additionally, there’s no specific autonomous mode or advanced options presented. Ultimately, this product seems far from the advanced concepts seen in competitors like the Monarch tractor or other Californian machines.

From diesel to electric, the gap is huge !

Implementing an electric tractor on a farm is far more complex than just replacing a diesel one. Electrifying an entire farm is a project that redefines the operation of the whole system. I had the opportunity to explore a 100% electric farm in New Zealand that adopted a Monarch tractor. Their transition demonstrated how deeply the infrastructure must be rethought to make such tools viable. Ultimately, this product seems far from the advanced concepts seen in competitors like the Monarch tractor or other Californian machines.

Expert Analysis: Revolutionary or Just Hype?

John Deere is undoubtedly making strides toward autonomy, and we can be certain they will eventually have a solution across their entire product range and for all agricultural markets. However, it appears that John Deere is still far from being able to commercialize these machines effectively. Making tractors smarter is a step forward, but the tools themselves, which directly interact with the soil, must also advance significantly.

John Deere has chosen to begin with Californian orchards and their open-mindedness farmers—a challenging yet ideal testing ground due to technological constraints, particularly in obstacle detection. It's also a good time for John Deere to bring in new products and once again conquer the specialist tractor market, where Kubota and CNH have innovated a lot the last few years.

For electrification, What is shown is just a concept, is still far from a finished product. This raises the question of whether the agricultural machinery industry might face a similar crisis to the automotive sector when Chinese players enter the market with more advanced and affordable electric tractors !?

While these innovations showcase John Deere’s commitment to autonomy and sustainability, the broader market implications warrant careful scrutiny. Here’s a market specialist’s perspective:

Technological Readiness: While the technology is impressive, its widespread adoption hinges on overcoming different farm infrastructure, connectivity barriers, different tasks, tools … we're just beginning to scratch the surface (of the fields ;)
Cost vs. ROI: How much will it cost? Who will be able to pay for this on-board technology? Still impossible to guess, but I think I need to start saving now so that I can afford my own 7R on the family farm! Only large-scale operations might see a return on investment in the short/average term.

If tou want to see the JD press conference

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